October 10, 2012 statistical analyst nate silver says humility is key to making accurate predictions. For silvers followers, his 2016 hedged forecasts, his arguable mathturbation, doesnt matter. Nate silver interviews michael lewis about his new book, the. Postelection, nate silvers book sales soar cbs news.
Nate silver is the 35yearold data engineer and forecaster with superstar status. His ambitious new book, the signal and the noise, is a practical handbook and a philosophical manifesto in one. Since then, his website, now central to the new york times s political coverage, has become an essential source of rigorous, objective analysis of voter surveys to predict the electoral college. It should be noted that while silver covers a very wide range of subjects in his book, i eschew many of these subjects, and focus mostly on the economy and a couple of. He is currently the editorinchief of espns fivethirtyeight blog and a special correspondent for abc news.
This is the official page of shayne silvers, author of the worldwide amazon bestselling nate temple series, the feathers and fire. Applying statistical analysis to the past, nate silver evaluates the. Nate silver who founded the fivethirtyeight blog, and has been analyzing polling data better than anyone else in his field for the past several years has finally written a book, and its. More information, more problemsthis book was recommended by one the many books related emails i get each day.
The book includes case studies from baseball, elections, climate change, the 2008 financial crash. Apr 18, 20 in the signal and the noise, the new york times political forecaster nate silver, who accurately predicted the results of every state in the 2012 us election, reveals how we can all develop better foresight in an uncertain world. The daily show with nate silver the new york times. Espns fivethirtyeight editorinchief nate silver on building a best picture nominee. I want to give you a sense of the book and its powerful message by sharing a few excerpts from the introduction. Nov 14, 2012 nate silver, the new york times prognosticator who became something of a controversial figure in the final days of the 2012 presidential campaign, has seen an 850 percent spike of his book sales. In the midst of a hyperactive media landscape even more superheated by presidential politics, i find myself turning to the excellent new york times blog called fivethirtyeight, which i also followed in its independent days back in 2008. But hes got a long track record of highquality prediction. Nate silver dropped by morning joe today to talk about his bestselling book the signal and the noise, as well as the 2012 election. Nate silver confuses cause and effect, ends up defending.
Why so many predictions fail but some dont, silver explains the. Statistical analyst nate silver says humility is key to making accurate predictions. Nate silvers signal and the noise examines predictions. Now, silvers method seems to be to stir up trouble for the times. From that date the blog focused almost exclusively on forecasting the outcomes of the 2010 u. The signal and the noise is a terrific book, with much to admire. It must have taken superhuman will for new york times fivethirtyeight blogger and columnist nate silver to avoid quoting yogi berra in the course of writing his engaging and sophisticated new book. Dec 18, 2012 nate silver on being gay after being named out magazines person of the year nate silver says his friends would describe him as sexually gay but ethnically straight in a new interview with out magazine, who named the american statistician person of the year in its new issue. Nate silver july 20, 2017 on earth 2, where hillary clinton is president, joe lieberman is attorney general, kellyanne conway has a cnn show, and trump is.
Silver, who writes the new york times fivethirtyeight blog, has just written a new book. Nate silver interviews michael lewis about his new book. Why so many predictions fail but some dont, silver explains the prediction paradoxthat it is only by adopting a true appreciation for uncertainty that one can form a more accurate picture of how things will likely unfold. What follows is a full executive summary of the signal and the noise.
From the stock market to the poker table, from earthquakes to the economy, he takes us on an enthralling insiders. After that discussion, fivethirtyeight editorinchief nate silver spoke with lewis about the book, what it has to say about the 2016 u. I cant remember what the particular theme was for its recommendation, although im sure it had something to do with how political forecasting data could fail so. He solidified his standing as the nations foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction. Run by statistical whiz nate silver, the analyses on fivethirtyeight are excellent, and the number crunching is superlative. Why most predictions fail but some dont is a 2012 book by nate silver detailing the art of using probability and statistics as. In his recent book the signal and the noise, he correctly describes the discipline of. The new game of thrones season starts in april, but what about that book. Nov 04, 2012 nate silver has lived a preposterously interesting life. Why so many predictions fail but some dont, in which he examines everything from politics and weather. About the signal and the noise one of the more momentous books of the decade.
Those weak retorts illustrate a faulty foundation in silvers approach. Nate silvers fivethirtyeight uses statistical analysis hard numbers to tell. Behind nate silvers war with the new york times politico. Silver, who writes the new york times fivethirtyeight blog, has just written a new book called the signal and. It should be noted that while silver covers a very wide range of subjects in his book, i eschew many of these subjects, and focus mostly on the economy and a couple of political and social issues here. Why some predictions failbut some dont by nate silver. Im very happy that people are reading a book on modeling in such huge numbers its currently eighth on the new york times best seller list and its been on the list for nine weeks. He shot to fame in 2008 for correctly predicting the outcome in 49 out of 50 states in the us presidential election. Im very happy that people are reading a book on modeling in such huge numbers its currently eighth on the new. We dont know yet whether nate silvers forecast of the 2012 election will be as accurate as it was in 2008.
In one of the best chapters in the book, silver gives a stepbystep description of the use of probabilistic reasoning in placing bets while playing a hand of. Apologies to president obama, who is going on the show thursday night and has to follow nate. Nate silver has lived a preposterously interesting life. In 2002, while toiling away as a lowly consultant for the accounting firm kpmg, he hatched a revolutionary method for predicting the. Nate silver is a statistician, writer, and founder of the new york times political. In 2008, nate silver correctly predicted the results of all 35 senate races and the presidential results in 49 out of 50 states. Nate silver on being gay after being named out magazines person of the year nate silver says his friends would describe him as sexually gay but ethnically straight in a new interview with out magazine, who named the american statistician person of the year in its new issue. I just finished reading nate silvers newish book, the signal and the noise.
Nate silver made his name as the new york times data guru, creating the methodology that predicted barack obamas reelection. The signal and the noise by nate silver the boston globe. Nate silver, artist of uncertainty the american prospect. The signal and the noise nate silver business insider. Nate silvers the signal and the noise i found a kindred spirit when i recently read nate silvers new book the signal and the noise penguin press, 2012. The signal and the noise, by nate silver the new york times. In the signal and the noise, the new york times political forecaster nate silver, who accurately predicted the results of every state in the 2012 us election, reveals how we can all develop better foresight in an uncertain world. Silver first gained public recognition for developing pecota, a system for forecasting the performance and career development of major league baseball players. The signal and the noise by nate silver is a 2012 penguin publication. Dec 16, 2016 after that discussion, fivethirtyeight editorinchief nate silver spoke with lewis about the book, what it has to say about the 2016 u. Nate silver s political calculus commenced on august 25, 2010, with the publication of new forecast shows democrats losing 6 to 7 senate seats. Dec 20, 2012 crossposted on naked capitalism i just finished reading nate silvers newish book, the signal and the noise.
Why so many predictions fail but some dont, silver explains the prediction paradoxthat it is only by adopting a. Oct 10, 2012 statistical analyst nate silver says humility is key to making accurate predictions. Sep 27, 2012 in his new book, the signal and the noise. Poll prophet his blog has emerged as the goto destination for an increasingly anxious public. I found a kindred spirit when i recently read nate silvers new book the signal and the noise penguin press, 2012. Oct 29, 2012 in 2008, nate silver correctly predicted the results of all 35 senate races and the presidential results in 49 out of 50 states. One might ask nate silver, the data whiz behind, which shot to prominence after providing eerily accurate forecasts of the 2008 election, what makes for good predictions.
Nate silver on the art and science of prediction youtube. Why most predictions fail but some dont alternatively stylized as the signal and the noise. Fivethirtyeights own nate silver was the featured guest on the daily show with jon stewart to talk about his new book, the signal and the noise. Nate silvers fivethirtyeight uses statistical analysis hard numbers to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science, economics and lifestyle. Oct 10, 2012 october 10, 2012 statistical analyst nate silver says humility is key to making accurate predictions. Why so many predictions fail but some dont is a 2012 book by nate silver detailing the art of using probability and statistics as applied to realworld circumstances. Nate silver, the new york times prognosticator who became something of a controversial figure in the final days of the 2012 presidential campaign, has. When nate silver was negotiating a new, richer contract, his lawyer told me that his client was the prettiest girl at the prom, former times executive editor jill abramson wrote in her 2018 book, merchants of truth. I told him, perhaps echoing the past, the times is always the prettiest girl. Nathaniel read nate silver born january, 1978 is an american statistician and writer who analyzes baseball and elections. Nate silver s fivethirtyeight uses statistical analysis hard numbers to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science, economics and lifestyle. Oct 24, 2012 yet, as nate silver, a blogger for the new york times, points out in his book, the signal and the noise, studies show that from the stock pickers on wall street to the political pundits on. His ambitious new book, the signal and the noise, is a practical handbook and a philosophical manifesto in one, following the theme of prediction through a series of case studies ranging from hurricane tracking to professional poker to counterterrorism.